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Broken Computer Models & Banged Up Sectors
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The impact on individual health and well being from this Covid-19 virus may not end up as bad as some have been predicting – but what about the economy? …
… It’s devastation for some of the smaller players and for those that are vulnerable.
True, no one knew at the outset how this virus would play out. But many dire predictions were based upon faulty “computer models”.
Scientists and prognosticators of all sorts create computer models. They input data, spin the wheel and watch where the pointer stops.
Computer models don’t work well simply because scientists don’t know enough about certain aspects of whatever they are trying to make assumptions about for their modeling.
They end up making wrong assumptions in many cases! It’s the same with predicting hurricanes and so-called man-made climate change – faulty assumptions.
For any given panic or threat, there may be 40, 50 or more computer simulations. A couple models may end up being more or less accurate. But the vast majority? Well … not so accurate.
In this Covid-19 case (or call it the Chinese or Corona virus), there was faulty data put into the computer models. You know – garbage in, garbage out. Recently, the number of estimated deaths is being ratcheted down – drastically, based upon realities.
Computer models are “simulations” of what people think is going on – simulations are not reality.
Further, political bias has infected everything – and “political” it is. EVERYTHING is politicized!
Facts, truth and evidence are in short supply.
Older people with underlying medical problems are bearing the brunt of this virus. The others? They have a low probability of getting zapped.
This nonstop alarmism with the shut-down economy is destroying people’s lives with far more damaging impact than those who have died from the virus because many of those infected have been knocking on death’s door before the virus hit them. There are exceptions, of course.
What economic sectors are getting punished? Well, there’s the good and there’s the ugly. Let’s look at which economic sectors are affected.
Hardest hit sectors – ugly …
- Consumer Discretionary
The Ugly …
Let’s take a look at one company in the Energy sector – Continental Resources, Inc. (CLR). At the beginning of the year, its stock was selling for about $35 per share. Currently, it’s below $13 – down over 62% – (but it leaped about 18% in one day several days ago – a good investment at this point? – who knows but I wouldn’t bet on it).
This company’s future performance is directly related to the price of oil and natural gas and production volumes plus investors’ perceptions of how things are going for the company and the industry. For the first three months of this year, sales and profits have been blunted.
How is this going to play out in the future for this company? Only time will tell.
Not so hard hit – good …
- Health care
The Good …
Here’s a stock in the Information Tech sector with a snapshot of what’s going on with them – Mantech Internatl Corp. (MANT). Its stock price was climbing nicely and then took a hit at the onset of the virus news. (Nearly every stock took a good lick downward at this point in time).
However, its stock price has gone up over 36% in just a matter of a couple of weeks. And, its sales and profits are going gangbusters and may very well continue!
Here’s the point I’m making …
In the upcoming months, you may hear the mainstream news’ channels talking about the ugly stuff that’s going on. They will probably focus mainly on what’s going on in the Energy and Industrial’s sectors plus whatever other negative things they can concoct.
Ugly stuff is usually “shocking” stuff – or at least that’s the idea in order to capture attention.
What may be even worse, in my opinion, is that there will be efforts to put Trump “on trial” for the way he dealt with the virus. Believe me; attempts to crucify him once again will begin anew!
America – get ready for Hoax 3.0, or whatever version we are on.
Folks, don’t buy in to all this negativity!
These misleading media-makers are making me sick. When I get old, I may transition into research and investigative writing simply because YOU, the people – and especially the younger ones – are getting narrow, one-sided and false information.
It wasn’t this way when I was growing up.
Truth and reality have gone down the crapper!
How can you respond? You can try and learn more about important issues no matter how busy you are. I’ve totally lost faith in the news such as CNN, MSNBC, NBC, etc. and sometimes even Fox News.
Here’s several ways you might want to respond – check out several “alternative”, investigative reporters below. Make THESE your new sources of information.
These people are NOT the slick, Madison Avenue-type reporters. But they do their homework and present it without much of the bias you’ll find in the mainstream news media.
I don’t necessarily agree with everything said in these videos but I listen and try to learn.
In my opinion probably the BEST source for accurate news – there is Hillsdale College with their lecture series that’s placed on YouTube. Their monthly publication, “Imprimis”, is mailed free of charge to anyone who wants it and they also accept donations to help fund students’ education.
They also provide free online courses. Go HERE >>> Hillsdale College Online Courses
Hillsdale College doesn’t take a dime of government money while Ivy League colleges take billions from our government, including foreign “donations” from China, Saudi Arabia and who knows from where else.
There may be other good resources ….. grab on to some of these ESPECIALLY if you are a younger person. The future is YOURS – not so much mine.
Lastly, I just got an “emergency” message on my cell phone from the state governor telling me to “STAY HOME”. We’ve got two covid-19 cases in the county where I’m at now and both have recovered. These false alarms have got to stop!
Yes, some people are dying but my chances of choking on a piece of chocolate pie or an oreo cookie and dying are much greater than getting the covid-19 virus.
This is government control OUT of control.
There’s an individual, Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, a biological engineer from M.I.T. who has plenty to say about all of this. He not only knows the medical side of the virus but he also has a firm understanding of what’s going on politically. You may hear much more about him as time passes.
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